Frederik Willem
de Klerk

Strategic Leadership in a Rapidly Changing World

Speech by former President FW De Klerk to the Royal College of Defence Studies
London, 12 May 2010

It is a great honour for me to be able to address the Royal College of Defence Studies on the important question of strategic leadership.

Strategic leadership implies the ability
• to understand the broader environment within which one has to operate;
• to discern trends in a rapidly changing world;
• to formulate a vision that will ensure optimal outcomes;
• to mobilise the resources required to achieve one’s vision; and
• to lead the process until one has achieved one’s goals.

I would like to share some thoughts with you regarding my own experience of strategic leadership in a rapidly changing environment.

We can make the following three observations about change:
• it is accelerating;
• it is fundamental; and.
• it is unpredictable.

During the past century there has been an exponential acceleration in the pace of change. Our society probably has changed more during the past ten years than it did in the first ten thousand years of our development as a species.

The change that we are experiencing is fundamental. It affects virtually every aspect of our lives. Change is also unpredictable. Some of the main developments that have fundamentally transformed the world were entirely unforeseen only twenty-five years ago:
• think of the internet and the world-wide web;
• the collapse of the Soviet Union and international communism;
• think of 9/11 and the global struggle against terrorism;
• think of AIDS.

Everywhere the forces of change are in full flood. They are obliterating the familiar and comfortable landscapes in which we grew up.

I would like to share some thoughts with you on how we in South Africa dealt with the challenge of leadership in a rapidly changing environment.

The first requirement of leadership is actually to become a leader.

The world is full of people with great theories about leadership, about what needs to be done in their companies or in their countries. However, the reality is that they will remain armchair experts and grandstand coaches unless they have the ability to attain leadership positions from themselves. I am sure that most of you in this audience have attained leadership positions. You will know that it is not easy to get there – and once you have arrived it is equally difficult to remain.

History awards no prizes to those who have the right answers. It recognises only those who acquire power and use it to translate their vision of what is right into positive developments on the ground.

From the perspective that I have gained during my career I have been able to identify the following requirements for leadership.

The leader’s first task is to carry out a thorough and dispassionate assessment of the environment in which he must operate.

By the beginning of the ‘eighties, it was becoming increasingly clear to many of us in leadership positions in the National Party that we were on the wrong course. We were becoming more and more isolated from the international community with each year that passed. The great majority of black South Africans were increasingly adamant in their rejection of our policies and the solutions that we were trying to impose on them. As a result, we had become trapped in a downward spiral of resistance and repression that threatened at some stage in the not too distant future to erupt into full-scale conflict.

All of this was having an increasingly damaging effect on our economy and was threatening to shut down the engine of economic growth that was, and remains, our best hope of bringing all our people a better life.

My colleagues and I spent a great deal of time identifying our problems and wrestling with the need for fundamental change. In open and often brutally frank discussions we examined the hard and unpalatable facts that confronted us. We also struggled with the question of what was right and what was wrong within the framework of our values.

We knew that we could have clung to power for two or three decades - but we also knew that with every passing year our situation would become more desperate and our options more limited.

At the same time, we could not ignore the strategic threat posed by the Soviet Union and the influence of the South African Communist Party in the ANC. We knew that nearly all the members of the ANC’s National Executive Committee were also members of the South African Communist Party. We knew that SACP cadres controlled key functions within the ANC alliance, most notably its armed wing Umkhonto we Sizwe. We knew that the SACP proposed a two phased revolution – a national liberation phase that would include all forces opposed to apartheid during which the ANC would be the vanguard party; and a second ‘democratic’ liberation phase that would culminate, under the leadership of the SACP, in the achievement of the ‘democratic’ revolution and the establishment of a ‘people’s democracy’.

Former NP governments did not feel that they were under any moral obligation to accept a one-man, one-vote process that would quickly lead to the demise of democracy and the establishment of a totalitarian communist regime – as had already happened in a number of neighbouring states. This was not a question of ‘reds under beds’. The communist threat was very real. The contest between the free world and the Soviet bloc was taking place through third world liberation struggles. One of the main battlegrounds was southern Africa where South African forces had until as late as the end of 1987 been involved in large-scale battles with Cuban and Soviet-led forces in Angola.

The second task of strategic leadership is to identify trends and changes that might affect the future course of events.

By the end of 1989 it had become increasingly apparent that some fundamental changes in our environment had begun to create circumstances that were conducive for transformation.
• By 1987 all the significant parties involved in the South African conflict had come to accept that there could be neither a military nor a revolutionary victory. They also knew that continuing conflict would simply turn South African into a wasteland.
• Economic growth from the 60s onwards had brought about significant economic and social changes. Between 1970 and 1994 the black share of personal disposable income increased from 28.9% to almost 50%. Millions of black South Africans moved to the cities and improved their standard of living and education. By 1989 they had begun to occupy key positions in the industrial and commercial sectors. Increasingly they were becoming indispensable in the white-collar professions. By 1994 there were more black South Africans at university than whites.
• Similar changes were taking place in the Afrikaner community. In the decades following 1960 a whole generation of young Afrikaners moved from the working class to the middle class. They graduated from university and travelled abroad – and were inevitably influenced by global values. They no longer shared the fiery nationalism of their parents and grandparents and by the early ‘eighties they were becoming increasingly uncomfortable with apartheid. By 1989 they were ripe for change.
• The tripartite agreement between South Africa, Cuba and Angola in 1988 also played an important role. It led to the withdrawal of Cuban forces from Angola, the implementation of UN resolution 435 and the independence of Namibia. The negotiations and successful implementation of the UN independence plan during 1989 reassured the government that it could secure its core interests through negotiations with its opponents.
• The final – and critically important - factor was the collapse of global communism at the end of the 1980s. At a stroke, it removed the government’s primary strategic concern. The demise of international expansionist communism and the manifest success of the free market economies also meant that there was no longer any serious debate with regard to the economic policies that would be required to ensure economic growth in a future democratic South Africa

By the time I became president in September 1989 the National Party was already committed to fundamental transformation. However, the collapse of Soviet communism enabled us to accelerate the process. When history opens a window of opportunity it is wise to jump through it. We knew that the circumstances for a reasonable constitutional settlement would never again be so favourable. So we jumped.

Strategic leadership requires the articulation of an attainable vision.
On 2 February 1990 I presented a new vision to the South African Parliament of a peaceful and democratic solution to our problems. I said that our goal was “a new South Africa:
• a totally changed South Africa;
• a South Africa which has rid itself of the antagonism of the past;
• a South Africa free of domination or oppression in whatever form;
• a South Africa within which the democratic forces - all reasonable people - align themselves behind mutually acceptable goals and against radicalism, irrespective of where it comes from.”

By 1994 - to the astonishment of the world - we had turned our vision into reality.

The leader must mobilise and retain maximum support for his programme

One of my main tasks as leader was to unite my party and supporters behind our new vision. This required a great deal of attention to communication. It was very important to convince the media and the world of our vision. It was also essential to encourage our own supporters and reassure them that we were on the right path. Most people can deal with change and are even prepared to make essential sacrifices - but they cannot deal with uncertainty.

Resistance to change is deeply ingrained in us. In our case, the whites and other minorities had well-based reasons to fear change. They were deeply concerned about:
• communist influence in the ANC;
• the failure of many other African countries to build, stable, democratic and prosperous societies; and
• the future of ethnic and cultural minorities under a majority-rule government.

It was the task of the party’s leadership to reassure them that the best chance of protecting their core interests lay in granting full political rights to all South Africans.

I also spent a great deal of time mobilising support for our transformation approach in the international community. I visited nearly all of the major Western capitals, several African countries, as well as Moscow and Tokyo. I received strong support for my initiatives from Prime Minister Thatcher, President George Bush senior and from Chancellor Kohl.

We also did everything we could to ensure the support of the business community - which played a very constructive role during some of the most difficult phases of the transition.

The toughest aspect of strategic leadership is turning one’s vision into reality.

Successful change management invariably requires risk-taking, timing and perseverance. Leadership style is also important.

Some leaders try to lead through the sheer force of their personalities, others by the brilliance of their intellect. I tried to do so by putting the emphasis on teamwork; by drawing all members of my management team into the process; by listening carefully to all of them; and by forging an acceptable consensus. This may not have been the most spectacular leadership style, but in my view it was the most effective. It helped to ensure that during the entire process the whole of our management team and nearly all our support base remained solidly committed to our common vision.

Good timing is essential.
It is foolish for leaders to be vociferously right at the wrong time or to move so far ahead in the right direction that their followers can no longer hear or see them. History and events move at their own pace - sometimes agonisingly slowly, at other times with frightening speed. A leader intent on managing change must watch the tides and currents and must position himself accordingly. Timing is crucially important.

A leader must have a weather eye open for changes in political tides and currents. More than this, however, he must also be ready to ride the wave of history when it breaks.

Another principle that I followed in taking these far-reaching steps - some of which I knew would cause great concern to many of our followers - was to announce all the decisions at once, rather than to do so in a piece-meal fashion.

Leaders must persevere.
Having taken the decision to embark upon radical change, the main challenge is to maintain sufficient control of the process. I realised that the decisions that I announced on 2 February would unleash a chain of events with far-reaching and unpredictable consequences.

It was rather like paddling a canoe into a long stretch of dangerous rapids. You may start the process and determine the initial direction. However, after that the canoe is seized by enormous and often uncontrollable forces. All that the canoeist can do is to maintain his balance, avoid the rocks and steer as best he can - and right the canoe if it capsizes. It is a time for cool heads and firm, decisive action.

We experienced many such crises after we began our own transformation process. The boycotts of the process by the ANC and the IFP; the violence that continued to scourge the country during the negotiations; the ANC’s campaign of rolling mass action involving strikes and massive demonstrations; the assassination of Chris Hani - all of these crises almost caused the process to capsize.

Leaders must be prepared to take risks.
There were many points during the transformation process when we had to take calculated risks. Among these were our decisions
• to permit free political activity for all parties - including even the Communist Party; and
• to commit ourselves irrevocably to a negotiated solution and to a future where we would no longer be the sole arbiters of our destiny.

One of the most notable risks that I took was in 1991 when the National Party started to lose bye-elections - primarily to the Right. The Conservative white Party insisted that we had lost our mandate to continue with our new course. It claimed the right to speak for the majority of Whites and began to undermine the National Party Government’s reform programme.

I decided – against the advice of my closest advisers - that the best way to deal with this threat would be to call a referendum among the White electorate to renew and strengthen my mandate for reform. In the event, the referendum, which was held in March 1992, resulted in a two-thirds victory for the continuation of our transformation policies.

Finally, leaders must accept that the process of change never ends.
There is no point at which leaders can say that they have ‘solved’ any problem in a rapidly changing environment. As soon as they have achieved their objectives, they must begin to address the next challenges that change will inevitably throw down. Ultimately, they must face the final test of leadership – of accepting the appropriate time for their own retirement. One of the greatest mistakes of leaders – including many great leaders – has been their inability to know when to leave the political stage. Too many fail this test and overstay their welcome.

By 1997 we had achieved most of the primary objectives that we had set in 1990:
• we had negotiated one of the most democratic constitutions in the world;
• we had rejoined the global community;
• our new government had adopted economic policies and approaches that were, by and large, sensible and effective. We were well positioned for high economic growth.
• we had done all this with surprisingly little violence and with a great deal of goodwill.

Our current generation of leaders in South Africa face many serious problems. Their main challenges are to ensure that
• the constitutional transformation that we initiated in 1990 is translated into a better life for all our people. At present this is not the case. We remain one of the most unequal societies in the world and almost 40% of black South Africans are unemployed.
• we need to uphold the 1996 constitution which we adopted after years of negotiation. It contains the blueprint for justice and equality and guarantees the rights of all our people and communities. Unfortunately, there are signs that some of those rights are beginning to erode; and that
• we work together to address the very real problems that confront us, including crime, unemployment, poverty and AIDS.

I completed my leg in the great relay race of leadership thirteen years ago. I can now watch from the grandstand as the current generation of leaders continue the race. I wish them well in their pursuit of the vision of peace, justice, toleration and prosperity that inspires our new society.